Know, don't believe.
Nyalai returns binary verdicts on probabilistic systems in quantitative finance. Every candidate is examined against five adversarial validation gates; a gate that does not apply, or cannot be computed, is reported as such. Every published verdict is dated and publicly citable. The strategies Nyalai evaluates operate in the fourth quadrant of decision-making, where payoffs are complex and tails are fat. The gate specifications and thresholds are published under Creative Commons Zero.
Both forms below are constructed specimens, not verdicts. The first shows a refusal: a strategy passes Gate 1a, fails Gate 2 and is not tested further. The second shows what a CALIBRATED form would look like. The published verdict-forms and their status are listed further down this page.
Illustrations made with AI assistance.
Hundreds of factors have been proposed to explain returns, and a significance threshold built for a single test does not hold when so many are tried.
In the taxonomy Nassim Taleb published in 2008, decisions divide along two axes: whether the payoff structure is simple or complex, and whether the underlying randomness lives in thin-tailed or fat-tailed distributions. Quantitative strategies operate in the complex-and-fat-tailed region: nonlinear payoffs, unbounded loss possibilities, regime shifts. Our doctrine argues that this is where statistical inference is hardest and model failures most costly. Nyalai's position is that systems operating there warrant an additional adversarial layer, external to the party that built them. That is Nyalai's position, not a regulatory requirement. Supervisory guidance on model risk management, in the United States SR 26-2 of April 2026, which superseded SR 11-7, is addressed to banking organizations.
Nyalai does not eliminate Fourth Quadrant risk. Nyalai makes the decisions rendered under that risk auditable, and refuses strategies whose evaluation would require thin-tailed assumptions the underlying data does not support. The five gates are the operational form of that discipline. Each gate uses the statistical framework appropriate to its question, following the modular validation principle Joseph Simonian formalized in the Journal of Financial Data Science.
Each entry opens the full page. A verdict-form reports what was measured on a submitted system. The specimen is a constructed illustration of a passing form and is not a verdict.
A shared vocabulary for how much trust to place in a probabilistic prediction system. Numbered ascending. Each level defined by empirical passage of specific gates. Each level attached to a publicly declared deployment context. Strict nesting. Binary per level. Publicly contestable. Time-bounded.
Every verdict is a long-form artifact, dated and citable.
An external submission. Its verdict, published as NOT-CALIBRATED, was withdrawn by correction notice CN-003, with no conclusion on the strategy. The page keeps version 2 and the provisional annotation of version 2.1 as the record.